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Globe daily 2 step thru4/7/2023 On an ISM-adjusted basis, the gauge declined 4.6 points to 48.7, entering the contractionary zone for the first time since May 2020. And, the outlook for six months from now fell to the lowest level since 1979. The Philly Fed index for current business conditions dropped 9 points to -12.3 in July, marking the second straight negative print. But now, there are signs that the outlook may be dimming. factory output has remained a bright spot through much of the pandemic, despite a slew of headwinds including supply issues, hiring challenges, and skyrocketing prices. “Hartnett: “everyone bearish but no one has sold”” – (research excerpt) TwitterīMO economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy detailed the sharp slowdown in U.S. “Putin/China catalysts to be less bearish H2 but bull run needs peak CPI, peak yields, Fed done by ‘23… unlikely without big recession and/or big credit event (which disconnect between banks & yields has implied – Chart 2) sell SPX 4200 … The Big Flow: ‘ everyone bearish but no one has sold’ … for every $100 of inflow since Jan’21 just $2 of outflow from tech, $3 from equities ($12 from REITs, $22 from resources, $58 from financials, $93 from IG/HY/EM credit) note contrast with GFC … 3Ps: of the 3Ps, we say Positioning closest to green light for risk appetite/trade higher, but Profits and Policy don’t yet give green light for new bull trend and don’t think Wall St unwinds financial excesses of past 13 years with a 6-month garden variety bear market.” His weekly Flow Show research report was typically succinct (my emphasis), Log In Create Free Accountĭaily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott BarlowīofA Securities chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett remains among the most bearish Wall Street pundits.
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